|Ким Чен Ын (на фото) не появлялся на публике в более месяца. Последний раз его видели на концерте в Пхеньяне 3 сентября. Kim Jung-un (pictured) has not been seen in public for more than a month. He was last seen at a concert in Pyongyang on September the 3rd.|
Так, английской ежедневной газете «The Daily Mail» Ремко Бреукер (Remco Breuker) - профессор корееведения в Лейденском университете в Нидерландах, заявил, что «диктатор возможно было бы помещен под домашний арест».
Правда, другой аналитик, профессор Феликс Патрикеев (Felix Patrikeeff), специалист по Северной Кореи из госуниверситета Аделаиды в Австралии, сказал «Daily Mail», что это не первый случай, когда северокорейский диктатор исчез из поля зрения общественности. «То же самое произошло с Ким Ир Сеном в 1990-х годах. Он отсутствовал на публике в течение некоторого периода. Это время, как правило, рассматривается в качестве консолидации власти».
Ежедневная газета в Великобритании «The Guardian» излагает свою версию исчезновения лидера Северной Кореи, указывая на возможный дворцовый переворот. Кроме того, есть информация от бывшего придворного поэта КНДР Чан Чин Сон (Jang Jin-sung), который утверждает, что «Ким Чен Ын больше не управляет государством, а высокопоставленные государственные служащие не подчиняются ему».
Никаких подтверждений всем этим версиям пока нет.
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Is Kim Jong-Un under HOUSE ARREST?
North Korean dictator has not been seen since September and expert believes he may have been detained by his own regime
North Korea leader Kim Jong-un was last seen at a public concert in Pyongyang on September 3rd.
Professor of Korean Studies Remco Breuker believes the dictator could be under house arrest
The dictator's disappearance comes as relations with South Korea appear to be improving.
But another North Korean analyst believes it's still too early to work out why Kim has vanished
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has not been seen in public for more than a month, prompting speculation that he has been placed under house arrest.
The 31-year-old leader has not been seen in public since an appearance at a public concert on September 3rd in the nation's capital, Pyongyang.
Kim's public absence has sparked extensive speculation about his whereabouts, with one report even claiming he was suffering from bad health because of an 'addiction to cheese'.
North Korean state media reported last month that he was 'suffering from discomfort', but nothing else was specified.
In July, the leader had an obvious limp at the 20th anniversary of the death of his grandfather, North Korean founder, Kim Il-sung.
Remco Breuker, professor of Korean studies at Leiden University in the Netherlands, told the ABC the dictator could have been placed under house arrest.
'We're not sure where he is, or what's happening. We don't know whether he's in the hospital or whether he's been put under house arrest,' Professor Breuker told the ABC.
Professor Felix Patrikeeff, a North Korea analyst from the University of Adelaide, told Daily Mail Australia this was not the first time a North Korean dictator had vanished from public view.
'The same thing happened happened to Kim Il in the 1990s. He was absent from the public for some time. That era is generally looked at as a consolidation of power.'
But Patrikeeff says it's too early to jump to any conclusions about the leaders absence.
'It could mean any number of things. It is possible that the country could be going through a period of readjustment, but it's just too early to say.'
'There are further indications of changes in the leadership. For example, they have taken a milder line on South Korean relations. Some DPKR officials visited South Korea for Asian Games on Sunday. They have also recently admitted to the existence of labour camps, further suggesting they are taking a softer stance. '
Patrikeeff says there is a distinct change in North Korean propaganda of late.
'In terms of the media, there is a real lightening of the mood. The leadership in North Korea seems to be taking a more reasonable stance.'
In regards to the speculation he could be under arrest, Patrikeeff says ' We will have to wait and see. Any Western reports on North Korea need to be take with a grain of salt.'
'We need clear evidence before we can make any conclusions. Generally, with this type of regime, this would mean another figure becoming prominent in the public eye and making significant announcements,' he said.
'If that happened, we could have reason to believe there could be an imminent change in leadership.'
The Daily Mail, 08.10.14
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Kim Jong-un: has the North Korean dynasty fallen?
With the North Korean leader not seen in public for more than a month, rumours of a palace coup are rife. But evidence from inside the country suggests otherwise, says Christopher Green
North Korea’s ruling Kim dynasty - interactive
The appearance of three senior North Koreans in South Korea at the closing ceremony of the Asian Games has caused quite a stir. One of them has links to sport and another to relations with Seoul, so both had reasons to make the trip. But it’s the presence of the third, Hwang Pyong-so, that has caused the most consternation.
Hwang is a member of the North Korea’s Organisation and Guidance Department (OGD), which wields immense power in the country, with some observers claiming it represents a rival source of authority to the young leader, Kim Jong-un.
Kim Jong-un’s absence from the victory parade in Pyongyang for athletes returning from the Games only added to the speculation.
The leader has not been seen in public since 3 September, missing high-profile events including the celebrations for founding day of the Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea on 9 September and a legislative session of the Supreme People’s Assembly on the 25th. Just yesterday he missed a meeting to mark the 17th anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s election as general secretary of the ruling party.
Formal acknowledgement in a television documentary that Kim is suffering from “discomfort” did nothing to dampen the rumours that he has been subject to a palace coup.
The speculation stems from remarks from a former high-ranking North Korean official turned defector, Jang Jin-sung, suggesting the OGD has seized control, leaving Kim as a figurehead.
For many commenters, Hwang’s surprise appearance at the closing ceremony of the Asian Games was enough to provide evidence of Kim Jong-un’s downfall - both because of Hwang’s seniority and the unlikeliness of his trip to the south.
Neither of Hwang’s two public titles, director of the Korean People’s Army general political department and vice-chair of the National Defence Commission, have anything to do with sport. His position within the OGD is not well known, but the fact that a person with these ties would appear in the heart of South Korean territory was seen as proof of a powerful shake-up at the top.
But there is a less dramatic explanation. Based on the video evidence of his limp, it is widely accepted that Kim is now receiving medical treatment - possibly at one of the family’s well-appointed villas. The Seoul-based defector group, North Korea Intellectuals’ Solidarity, claims that Kim Yo-jong, his younger sister who acted as an aide to their father Kim Jong-il during his final years, is signing off on decisions in his absence.
Yet claims that Kim has been toppled are not supported by reports of internal North Korean lectures explaining the surprise visit to the Games. DailyNK, a South Korean media organisation staffed in part by defectors who have sources in the North, says civilians were gathered at workplaces and housing complexes on Saturday afternoon to hear the government’s explanation for the trip.
“Senior party and military cadres were dispatched all the way [to the Asian Games] for our athletes, who, without exception, honoured the Fatherland with their indomitable fighting spirit,” one lecturer explained. “With his great love and compassion, Marshal Kim Jong-un personally organised their dispatch, and provided them with a special plane,” she added.
The text for these lectures, a regular feature of life in North Korea, is produced centrally for dispatch throughout the land, and delivered without deviation. Not attending public lectures and teaching sessions is, officially at least, not an option - as mandated by the Ten Principles for the Establishment of the One-ideology System.
The result is that almost all North Koreans hear the same stories and lies, and remain on-message, however far they may be from the capital. In the absence of verifiable information on Kim’s status, they offer vital insight into what Pyongyang wants the country’s people to believe.
The suggestion that he is still at the helm, nominally at least, is supported by Choson Sinbo, an online publication run by the pro-North association of Korean residents in Japan, which reported that the visit to Incheon was “made possible by the resolve of Kim Jong-un”.
Also, the domestic North Korean media has barely reported on the trip at all. However, it has focused on the medal winning exploits of the country’s athletes at the Asian Games, with the official mouthpiece Rodong Sinmun singing one song loudly and clearly: the country’s sporting prowess is all down to the “energetic guidance” of one man: Kim Jong-un.
So despite the rumour mill, the North Korean message is still of Kim’s benevolent greatness. In elite circles his authority may be fragile, but that is a different question, one of the distribution of power in a dictatorship. It should not be confused with control over society. Publicly at least, the Kim dynasty remains in complete control.
«The Guardian», 08.10.14